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Investor Guide to Europe 2014
Poland is the largest and the most mature
commercial real estate market in Central and
Eastern Europe (CEE), with a high proportion of
activity concentrated on the capital, Warsaw. Poland
has strong macroeconomic fundamentals and a
stable political environment.
Despite being relatively small compared to other major
markets it has attracted high levels of overseas investment.
Domestic players have held a small market share – 8% of
transaction volume over the last 10 years. The strongest
activity has been from German, Uk, Irish, French and Austrian
entities.
Prime office buildings located in the Warsaw CBD and the best
shopping centres in major Polish regions, have been the most
sought after asset class for the last few years. However, along
with the market maturing and economic situation in Europe
improving, property buyers have started to consider more
opportunistic purchases. Additionally, following the positive
development of the industrial market, to a large extent
resulting from the growth of online retail, industrial properties
are becoming a sought after asset class.
The majority of stock is held by private companies and
funds. listed companies have a relatively small share of total
holdings. Institutional investment is limited. These trends are
evidenced by recent transactional activity.
Although Poland, as with other CEE markets has seen a
relatively weak recovery, we do see signs of improvement.
Debt is readily available from both local banks and German
Pfandbriefe Banks which have been active lenders.
Institutional lending is limited.
Market sizing
Poland
Europe
Invested stock*
(Total stock)
EUR 45bn
(EUR 315bn)
EUR 3,380bn
(EUR 8,150bn)
liquidity ratio*
(10y average)
7.0%
(6.0%)
4.0%
(4.5%)
2013 volumes
(10y average)
EUR 3.0bn
(EUR 2.5bn)
EUR 139bn
(EUR 135bn)
Investment activity by asset type, 2013
Source : DTZ Research
Investment activity by source of capital, 2013
Source : DTZ Research
Market pricing – Warsaw (Q4 2013)
office
Retail
Industrial
Current Yield 6.00% 6.00% 7.75%
Min/Max
(10y)
5.25-9.00% 5.50-10.00% 6.50-10.50%
Yield
definition
Gross initial yield (net Rental Income/net
Market value)
Source : DTZ Research
PoLanD
* 2012 figures
